Glossary · Last updated
Expected goals
Short answer
A shot-quality metric that estimates the probability each shot becomes a goal, based on factors like location and shot type.
Expected goals (xG) assigns every unblocked shot a scoring probability between 0 and 1 using historical data — where the shot was taken, the shot type, whether it followed a rebound or a rush, and more.
Summing those probabilities gives a team or player an xG total that measures the quality of chances created and allowed, which is usually a stabler process signal than raw goals over short stretches.
Frequently asked questions
What is Expected goals (xG) in hockey?
A shot-quality metric that estimates the probability each shot becomes a goal, based on factors like location and shot type.
Related
Corsi (CF%)
A shot-attempt metric counting all shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots, used as a proxy for puck possession.
Fenwick (FF%)
A shot-attempt metric like Corsi but excluding blocked shots, often used as a possession and shot-suppression proxy.
High-danger chances (HDCF)
Scoring chances from the most dangerous areas of the ice (typically the slot), where shots convert at much higher rates.
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