Expected goals
xGA shot-quality metric that estimates the probability each shot becomes a goal, based on factors like location and shot type.
Expected goals (xG) assigns every unblocked shot a scoring probability between 0 and 1 using historical data — where the shot was taken, the shot type, whether it followed a rebound or a rush, and more.
Summing those probabilities gives a team or player an xG total that measures the quality of chances created and allowed, which predicts future goals far better than raw shot counts or short-run shooting percentage.
How a hockey analytics data stack works
The end-to-end path from raw game data to an answer you can act on — drawn as one diagram.
Explainers that use this
Corsi vs Fenwick: which possession metric should you use?
Two shot-attempt metrics, one small difference — and when each one tells the truer story.
Getting started with DuckDB for hockey data
Why a single-file analytical database is the fastest way to start your hockey data stack.
What is MCP, and why it matters for hockey analytics
The open protocol that lets an AI safely query your data — explained in one diagram.
What is expected goals (xG) in hockey?
The single most useful hockey metric, explained from shot to season total.
Related terms
Corsi
A shot-attempt metric counting all shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots, used as a proxy for puck possession.
Fenwick
A shot-attempt metric like Corsi but excluding blocked shots, often used as a possession and shot-suppression proxy.
High-danger chances
Scoring chances from the most dangerous areas of the ice (typically the slot), where shots convert at much higher rates.