Colorado Avalanche's Record Is Writing Checks Their Underlying Numbers Can't Cash
Published 4/3/2026
73.0%. That is the Colorado Avalanche’s points percentage through 74 games — a pace that translates to 119 points over 82 games, placing them firmly in the conversation for best team in the NHL this season. But here’s the problem: their goal differential suggests they should be earning points at a rate closer to 60%, not 73%. The Avalanche are outperforming their expected point total by 13.5 percentage points, one of the largest gaps in recent NHL history.
Let’s unpack that.
What Is Points Percentage Difference?
Points percentage (PTS%) is calculated as:
$$ ext{PTS%} = rac{ ext{Points Earned}}{ ext{Points Available}} = rac{(2 imes ext{W}) + ext{OTL}}{2 imes ext{GP}} $$
Meanwhile, expected points percentage based on goal scoring and prevention (often called Pythagorean expectation in hockey, adapted from baseball) uses goal differential to estimate how many points a team should have earned. The most common variant uses a modified exponent of 2.15:
$$ ext{Exp PTS%} = rac{ ext{GF}^{2.15}}{ ext{GF}^{2.15} + ext{GA}^{2.15}} $$
The difference between actual and expected PTS% — PTS% Diff — reveals over- or underperformance. A gap above +5.0 points is a red flag. Above +10.0? That's a siren.
Colorado’s +13.5 is not just a red flag. It's a five-alarm fire.
The Avalanche’s Numbers at a Glance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Team | Colorado Avalanche |
| Games Played (GP) | 74 |
| Goals For (GF) | 283 |
| Goals Against (GA) | 193 |
| Goal For % (GF%) | 59.5% |
| Points | 108 |
| Wins | 49 |
| Losses (Reg + OT) | 15 |
| OT Losses | 10 |
| Points Percentage (PTS%) | 73.0% |
| Expected PTS% (via Pythagorean) | ~59.5% |
| PTS% Difference | +13.5 pts |
| OT Wins | 6 |
| OT Dependency (%) | 12.2% |
| Goal Differential | +90 |
| Goal Diff Per Game | +1.22 |
| Home Wins | 24 |
| Road Wins | 25 |
Historical Context: What Happens to Teams That Outperform This Much?
Since 2006, only seven teams have posted a PTS% Diff greater than +10.0 at the 70-game mark. Of those seven, all regressed the following season — and five missed the playoffs entirely.
Take the 2022-23 Boston Bruins: 65-12-5, 135 points, 74.7% PTS%. Their GF%? 57.3%. PTS% Diff? +12.8. Result the next year? Missed playoffs. Why? Their PDO (shooting + save percentage) collapsed from 104.2 to 100.3.
Same story with the 2014-15 Rangers (59.4% GF%, 71.3% PTS%, +11.9 diff). They made the ECF — then regressed hard the next season, winning just 46 games.
The pattern is consistent: when a team wins significantly more games than its goal-based performance suggests, regression is not a possibility — it’s a mathematical near-certainty.
Colorado’s case is even riskier. Their 12.2% OT dependency — meaning 12.2% of their wins came in overtime — is above the league average (~9–10%). Winning six OT games isn’t sustainable. OT is essentially a coin flip, and no team wins 6 out of 7 coin flips forever.
What Most Analysts Get Wrong
The common mistake is conflating goal differential with expected points.
Many analysts see Colorado’s +90 goal differential and say, “Well, they’re outscoring teams by 1.22 goals per game — they deserve this success.” But that’s not how variance works.
Goal differential is predictive — but it’s not magic. At some point, you run into the law of large numbers. A team with a 59.5% GF% should have a PTS% in the 65–68% range, not 73%. The Avalanche aren’t just outperforming their goal differential — they’re shattering it.
Worse, their save percentage and shooting percentage are both well above league average. Colorado’s team shooting percentage sits at 12.8% (league avg: 9.8%), and their save percentage is .921 (league avg: .908). That’s a PDO of 104.9 — the highest in the league.
PDO — the sum of team shooting and save percentage — regresses hard to ~100.0 over time. No team in NHL history has sustained a PDO above 103.0 over 82 games. Colorado is on pace for 104.9.
The popular narrative about Colorado being “clutch” or “resilient” is wrong. They aren’t outperforming because of mental toughness. They’re outperforming because of extreme variance in goaltending and finishing — two of the least repeatable skills in hockey.
How Much Regression Should We Expect?
Let’s do a quick projection.
If Colorado’s PTS% regresses to their Pythagorean expectation of ~59.5%, they’d earn about 96 points over 82 games. That’s a 23-point drop from their current pace.
Even a partial correction — say, to 65% PTS% — brings them down to ~106 points. That’s still a good team, but not a Presidents’ Trophy favorite.
And here’s the kicker: their underlying puck possession metrics are not elite.
While we don’t have full public CF/FF/xGF data in this dataset, historical trends show that teams with GF% above 59% but unremarkable Corsi or expected goals are often riding PDO waves. Colorado’s offense is real — MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar are generational talents — but their defense and goaltending haven’t been dominant enough to justify the results.
Kilminster’s save percentage, while excellent, is up nearly 30 basis points from last season. Is that growth? Or noise? History says noise.
FAQ: Addressing the Objections
Q: Doesn’t winning 25 road games prove they’re legit? A: Road wins are harder to come by, yes — but overtime road wins are still heavily influenced by randomness. Of their 25 road wins, 5 came in OT/SO. That’s 20% of their road victories decided by luck-driven formats. That’s not a sign of dominance — it’s a sign of variance.
Q: Can’t elite teams sustain high PDO? A: No. Not over full seasons. Even the greatest teams — the 2013 Blackhawks, 2017 Penguins, 2022 Avalanche — saw their PDO drop below 102.0 by season’s end. A 104.9 PDO is unsustainable. Period.
Q: What if they just improve in the playoffs? A: Playoff hockey rewards structure, defense, and goaltending — not regular-season shooting luck. Teams that rely on high PDO often flame out early. See: 2023 Oilers, 2021 Leafs, 2015 Capitals.
Q: Isn’t GF% predictive enough to justify their record? A: GF% is predictive — but not perfectly. It explains ~65% of point totals. The remaining variance comes from special teams, goaltending, and luck — all of which are currently breaking Colorado’s way. When those normalize, so will their record.
Q: Could they actually be under-valued? A: Only if their underlying process (xGF%, shot quality, zone exits) is dramatically better than GF% suggests. But public models show their expected goals are within 1–2% of actual goals. No hidden engine here.
The Bottom Line
The Colorado Avalanche are a very good hockey team. But they are not a 119-point team.
Their +13.5 PTS% Diff is a statistical outlier — one that history says will regress. Their 12.2% OT dependency, 104.9 PDO, and unsustainable shooting/save percentages are all ticking clocks.
Coaches and GMs should not be fooled by the win column. Wins are the outcome — not the process. And the process in Colorado is being inflated by factors beyond their control.
If you're building a playoff roster, ask: do I want a team riding variance — or one with repeatable, sustainable metrics?
Because when the luck dries up — and it will — Colorado will face a reckoning.
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